Research Interests

My primary research interests lie in artificial intelligence and reasoning under uncertainty, using logical and probabilistic models to analyze, forecast, and respond to agent behavior. I am also interested in time series analysis, lineary programming, and algorithmic game theory. I have developed several scalable probabilistic frameworks for behavioral modeling of international conflict and for identifying possible mitigating policies. Such issues provide unique, interdisciplinary challenges for expanding the field of artificial intelligence---presenting open problems in logic programming, probabilistic reasoning, forecasting, and distributed algorithms---but also opportunities for significant impact in public policy and security studies.

I am also interested more broadly in issues of technology policy and the social and security impact of IT, particularly regarding governance and cybersecurity.

Some of my current research projects include:

  • Stochastic Opponent Modeling Agents (SOMA)--Probabilistic logic modeling and reasoning framework for cultural dynamics. SOMA has been used primarily to model the behaviors of terrorist organizations, as well as the key players in the Afghan opium trade.
  • SOMA Terror Organization Portal (STOP)--Online tool that provides national security experts, policy analysts, and political science researchers with access to data on terror organizations and the behavioral modeling and forecasting tools developed by LCCD. STOP allows analysts the ability to examine approximately 36 terror organizations from about ten countries ranging from Morocco all the way to Afghanistan.
  • Change Analysis Predictive Engine (CAPE)--Probabilistic framework for modeling and forecasting when and how a group may change its behavior or strategies.
  • CONVEX--Vector similarity analysis for forecasting group behaviors based on comparisons with actions taken in the past.
  • SitCAST--Probabilitistic method for forecasting possible future situations in temporal datasets.
  • Technology Integration in the U.S. Intelligence Community--Investigating the technical and institutional barriers to technology integration in the Intelligence Community and assessing the needs for adaptive technologies.
  • Cybersecurity Framework--Collaboration with the National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies to investigate a conceptual and strategic framework for cyberwar.