  THE RACE BEGINS -  THE 76TH ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS At the KODAK THEATER,  Hollywood and Highland -  California Sunday February 29th,  2004 PREDICTIONS IN THE MAJOR CATEGORIES by Rex A Okpodu Updated February 23rd,  2004 -
 BEST PICTURE THE LORD OF THE RINGS:  THE RETURN OF THE KING ( New Line Cinema)  Golden Globe Winner,  Best Picture— Drama Best Ensemble winner,
 Screen Actors Guild 2003 This,  of course,  is the conclusion to the epic Tolkien fantasy trilogy about the quest for the ring.  This is the favorite to win.  Reasons for:  It is overdue for a win,
 since it has two previous consecutive Best Picture nominations for the prequels— The Fellowship of the Ring and The Two Towers.  The trilogy has amassed 30 nominations ( 11 this time around)  and 6 wins since 2001.  The winner of the Directors Guild of America(
DGA)  award usually wins best picture( see:  director category below)  Reasons against:  With so much riding on this conclusion to the already commercially successful trilogy,
 has it actually been worth the wait?  The consensus seems to be resoundingly positive.  But will the academy honor a fantasy film?  It never has before,  despite nominations for Star Wars ( 1977)
 and E. T. 1982)  What’ s more,  Academy voters might resent their hands being forced by a sense of obligation.
 MYSTIC RIVER ( Warner Bros.  This is the closest competitor to The Return of the King.  It is a drama about childhood friends reunited by the murder of one of their children.  Reasons for:  It is turning out to be this year's critical champion,
 with a slew of citations from reviewers.  Older members of the academy have been being buzzing about it being a gritty drama in the same league with films like A Streetcar Named Desire.  It is Clint Eastwood's best work since Unforgiven and it has a terrific cast in Sean Penn,  Tim Robbins,  Kevin Bacon,  and Marcia Gay Harden.
 Reasons against:  Like In the Bedroom ( 2001)  it might be too dark for the more mainstream academy voters.  Also,  Warner Bros.
 is not very good at Oscar campaigns.  SEABISCUIT ( Universal/ DreamWorks)  Reasons for:  It is a summer box-
office champ that has sold extremely well since its recent release on DVD.  Reasons against:  Its Best Picture nomination might be viewed as sufficient reward.  MASTER AND COMMANDER:  THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD ( Universal/
Fox/ Miramax)  This stirring action- adventure picture is about the strangeness of life on the far side of the world,  set against the backdrop of the Napoleonic wars.  Reasons for:
 This film has the backing of three Studios ( Fox,  Miramax,  and Universal)  which means a lot of industry votes and support.  Despite his offscreen reputation,
 the academy loves Crowe,  who has a history of powering a good film to multiple nominations— The Insider,  Gladiator,  and A Beautiful Mind in recent years.  Also,
 epic,  male- driven films do well at the Academy.  Reasons against:  If people want an epic,  they’
ll probably vote for The Return of the King.  Finally,  seagoing films do not often do well with the academy ( Titanic was an exception.  LOST IN TRANSLATION ( Focus Features)
 Reasons for:  It might benefit if the academy decides to reward a comedy as Best Picture.  It has a boost boost from critics around the nation.  It would probably fare better here if it had been directed by a man.  BEST DIRECTOR PETER JACKSON,  The Lord of the Rings:
 The Return of the King Golden Globe Winner,  Best Director Directors Guild of America,  Winner at his third consecutive nomination.  After one failed Best Director nomination in 2001 and a snub in 2002,  Jackson is a major contender for a win with this final installment of the hobbit story.  Reasons for:
Won best director at the Directors Guild of America dinner 2004.  The DGA winner has matched the Oscar winner for best director and picture ninety percent of the time since it's inception in 1948 The exceptions were in:  1948 Joseph L.  Mankiewicz( A Letter to Three Wives)  -
 DGA John Huston( Treasure of Sierra Madre)  -  Oscar( director)  Hamlet -
 best picture 1968 Anthony Harvey( Lion in Winter)  -  DGA Carol Reed( Oliver)  -
 Oscars( director and picture)  1995 Ron Howard( Apollo 13)  -  DGA Mel Gibson(
Braveheart)  -  Oscars ( director and picture)  2000 Ang Lee( Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon)
 -  DGA Steven Soderbergh( Traffic)  -  Oscar ( director)
 Gladiator -  best picture)  2002 Rob Marshall( Chicago)  -  DGA Roman Polanski(
The Pianist)  -  Oscar Chicago -  picture There is widespread agreement that he has completed a mammoth task and made a classic.  In addition,  the trilogy has been a tremendous money-
spinner for the industry.  Reasons against:  His newfound commercial success ( he is getting $ 20 million for his next project,  King Kong)
 might be viewed as adequate reward.  And he is still a Hollywood outsider.  PETER WEIR,  Master and Commander:  The Far Side of the World Reasons for:  He is a consistently good director and four-
time previous nominee in this category forWitness ( 1985)  Dead Poets Society ( 1989)  Green Card ( 1990)
 and The Truman Show ( 1998)  He is long overdue for a win,  and this could be his year.  Recently won the BAFTA and like last year's win by Roman Polanski, could be the start of a momentum Reason against:
 Academy voters always resent that sense of obligation to an overdue director.  This year belongs to Peter Jackson and ROTK CLINT EASTWOOD,  Mystic River Reasons for:  There is widespread agreement that this is Eastwood’ s best work since Unforgiven ( 1992)
 He is a Hollywood player with tremendous clout and star power.  Reasons against:  He has already been rewarded amply by the academy.  A few people are turned off by the film's dark material.  The academy might want to reward newer talent or someone overdue for the award. see Peter Jackson -
 above)  SOFIA COPPOLA,  Lost in Translation Reasons for:  The film garnered very good reviews and could be rewarded in this category,  though Coppola’ s much more likely to be honored with a screenplay statuette.
 She is a member of a well- connected filmmaking family— her father is Francis Ford Coppola.  This is only the third nomination for a woman in this category in 76 years— Lina Wertmuller ( Seven Beauties,
 1976)  and Jane Campion ( The Piano,  1994)  are the others.  Reasons against:
 The academy has a gender bias in this category.  And despite widespread rave reviews.  FERNANDO MEIRELLES,  City of God Reason for:  This film,  bringing the first nomination for this Brazilian director,
 has been acclaimed worldwide.  Reason against:  The movie does not have the added bonus of being nominated in the foreign- language category,  as is usual with similar recent examples in this category,  such as Life Is Beautiful (
1998)  or Crouching Tiger,  Hidden Dragon,  ( 2000)  both of which won in the foreign-
language category.  BEST ACTOR SEAN PENN,  Mystic River Golden Globe Winner,  Best Actor— Drama Reasons for:  This is turning out to be the Year of Penn.
 With two critically acclaimed films in his favor ( 21 Grams is the other,  an AA win is a very strong possibility.  And with three previous nominations in this category— Dead Man Walking ( 1995)
 Sweet and Lowdown ( 1999)  and I Am Sam ( 2001)  he is overdue for a win.  Reasons against:
 His outspoken antiwar campaign could bring him some unwelcome backlash.  His volatile nature could be his undoing during Oscar campaign time.  He is unlikely to want to be seen as eager for academy recognition,  which could alienate some.  His surprise loss at the SAGs might indicate a loss of momentum Him not showing up at the Golden Globes did not help.  BEN KINGSLEY,
 House of Sand and Fog Reasons for:  Has got major buzz about his performance in this film.  He may be due for another Oscar after two previous nominations in the supporting category for Bugsy ( 1991)  and Sexy Beast ( 2001)
 with a win for the lead role in Gandhi ( 1982)  Reasons against:  Without a major push,  this movie may be squeezed out.  What’
s more,  it doesn’ t have big box office.  BILL MURRAY,  Lost in Translation Golden Globe Winner,  Best Actor—
Musical or Comedy Reasons for:  He has won many critics’  awards.  He was overlooked for Rushmore ( 1999)  His performance at the podium for his Golden Globe win was impressive and delightful.
 Reasons against:  Despite the raves,  the academy does not go for this kind of deadpan comic performance( at least the older members do not)  Like Penn( above)
was considered a shoo- in at the SAGs and his loss here might indicate a last minute loss of momentum.  JOHNNY DEPP,  Pirates of the Caribbean:  The Curse of the Black Pearl SAG Winner,  Best Actor Reasons for:
 He got raves and the movie was a huge hit in both the theaters and on DVD.  His surprise victory at the SAGs indicates widespread support by the Acting branch who also make up the largest group at AMPAS.  Reasons against: Despite the SAG award, the year probably belongs to Penn or Murray JUDE LAW,  Cold Mountain Reasons for:
 He is a former Oscar nominee for Best Supporting Actor in The Talented Mr.  Ripley.  He managed to make the big five despite the poor overall showing by Cold Mountain.  Reason against:  He was a big- name SAG omission.
 BEST ACTRESS CHARLIZE THERON,  Monster Golden Globe Winner,  Best Actress— Drama SAG Winner,  Best Actress Reasons for:  The unstoppable frontrunner in this category -
 as indicated by wins at the Golden Globes and SAGs.  She has the kind of role the academy likes in this biopic about a prostitute who was an executed murderess.  Finally,  as the past two winners in this category have shown,  the academy absolutely adores women who play deglammed parts and who look great on the red carpet.  DIANE KEATON,
 Something's Gotta Give Golden Globe Winner,  Best Actress— Musical or Comedy Reasons for:  She is a beloved Hollywood veteran who is a previous Oscar winner for Annie Hall ( 1977)  This comedy about older characters should should play very well with older members of the academy.
 She is the sole American nominee in a lineup of foreigners and every time that happened in the past 75 years, the American won ( exception -  1998,  Judi Dench won best supporting actress in an all foreigner lineup in which Kathy Bates( Primary Colors)
 was the only American)  Reason against:  Like Sissy Spicek in 2001, the earlier momentum has vanished post -  Golden Globes Keaton’ s previous win is one of only five instances—
the others being Glenda Jackson forA Touch of Class ( 1973)  Cher for Moonstruck ( 1987)  Helen Hunt for As Good as it Gets ( 1997)
 and Gwyneth Paltrow for Shakespeare in Love ( 1998) of an actress winning in this category for a romantic comedy over the past four decades.  NAOMI WATTS,  21 Grams Reasons for:  She plays a flashy,
 Oscar- bait role in this gritty drama.  She has rebounded from the setback of her noninclusion by the Golden Globes by taking the Los Angeles Film Critics’  Best Actress and scoring a nomination at the SAGs.  Reasons against:  The dark nature of the film and the current restriction on screeners.
 KEISHA CASTLE- HUGHES,  Whale Rider Reason for:  Her inclusion at the SAGs indicates strong support for her title- role performance.  Reason against:
 At 13,  she is currently the youngest ever nominee in this category since Isabel Adjani was a nominee at 20 for The Story of Adele H( 1975)  Very young nominees tend to win in supporting category.  Recent examples are Tatum O'neal( 10)
 Paper Moon( 1973)  and Anna Paquin( 11)  The Piano( 1993)
 SAMANTHA MORTON,  In America Reason for:  The strong showing of In America in three major categories suggests widespread support for this former Oscar nominee for Best Supporting Actress for 1999’ s Sweet and Lowdown.  Reason against:  Not enough people have seen the film.
 BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR TIM ROBBINS,  Mystic River Golden Globe Winner,  Best Supporting Actor SAG Winner,  Best Supporting Actor Reasons for:  The film's multiple nominations in major categories are a help.  Plus the academy likes versatility—
he has a previous directing nomination and even directed a win for his partner,  Susan Sarandon,  for Dead Man Walking ( 1995)  Reason against:  His political views,
 although he gave a straightforward acceptance speech at the Golden Globes.  KEN WATANABE,  The Last Samurai Reason for:  His strong,  sexy performance.  Reason against:
 Aside from three technical award nominations,  he is the sole beneficiary in a poor showing by this film.  ALEC BALDWIN,  The Cooler Reasons for:  With his critics’  organization wins,
 he could be the dark horse in this category.  Reasons against:  Not enough people have seen the film.  His bullying history with ex- wife Kim Basinger doesn’ t help.
 BENICIO DEL TORO,  21 Grams Reason for:  As with costar Watts,  the SAGs have revived his campaign,  as it indicates good support for this film by the actors’  branch,
 which has many votes in the academy.  Reason against:  He’ s recently won an Oscar,  for Traffic ( 2000)
 DJIMON HOUNSOU,  In America Reason for:  He plays an Oscar- bait role ( a man with AIDS)  in a film that has done very well at professional guild screenings.
 Reason against:  He has a very low media profile for an Oscar nominee and not being a Golden Globe or SAG nominee did not help.  BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS RENEE ZELLWEGER,  Cold Mountain Golden Globe Winner,  Best Supporting Actress SAG Winner,  Best Supporting Actress Reason for:
 Another Oscar chance ( this will be her third in a row— in supporting category this time)  for this nominee to get her overdue Oscar.  The first SAG consecutive winner,  2003 -
 best actress ( for Chicago)  and 2004 -  best supporting actress( for Cold Mountain)  Reason against:
 The usual anticipated backlash against Miramax,  plus the movie did not do well in Oscar noms.  HOLLY HUNTER,  Thirteen Reason for:  A good offering from a seasoned actress,  who is an Oscar winner (
The Piano)  and three- time nominee.  She is a favorite on the indie circuit.  Reason against:  Will older/
nonindie members of the academy bother to go see this movie?  PATRICIA CLARKSON,  Pieces of April Reasons for:  East Coast indie- circuit queen has had a good year with this movie and The Station Agent. She may benefit from appearing on several critics’
 lists nationwide.  A double nomination at the SAGs shows momentum.  Reason against:  Will enough people have actually seen this film?  MARCIA GAY HARDEN,  Mystic River Reasons for:
 Fresh from her Oscar success in Pollock ( 2001)  she delivers a tour de force performance in the biggest female role in Eastwood's critically acclaimed drama.  She would definitely benefit if there is a sweep by the film.  Reasons against:  Her female role might get overlooked in this male-
driven drama.  Plus the academy might feel she has too recently been in the winners circle.  SHOHREH AGHDASHLOO,  House of Sand and Fog Reason for:  She gave a wrenching performance in this small Oscar- bait role—
she played a long- suffering,  dislocated wife who endures family tragedy.  Reason against:  Lack of a SAG nomination indicates weak support among the important actors’  bloc of Oscar voters.
 FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM -  THE BABARIAN INVASIONS ( CANADA)  Directed by Denys Arcand EVIL ( SWEDEN)  Directed by Mikael Hafstrom TWIN SISTERS (
THE NETHERLANDS)  Directed by Ben Sombogaart THE TWILIGHT SAMURAI ( JAPAN)  Directed by Yoji Yamada ZELARY ( CZECH REPUBLIC)  Directed by Ondrej Trojan BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY -
 LOST IN TRANSLATION by Sofia Coppola IN AMERICA by Jim,  Naomi and Kirsten Sheridan BARBARIAN INVASIONS by Denys Arcand FINDING NEMO by Andrew Stanton DIRTY PRETTY THINGS by Steven Knight BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY -  MYSTIC RIVER -  Adapted by Brian Helgeland,  based on a novel by Dennis Lehane II THE LORD OF THE RINGS -  RETURN OF THE KING -
 Adapted by Peter  Jackson, Fran Walsh, Phillipa Boyens and Stephan Sinclair based on   a novel by JRR Tolkien SEABISCUIT -  Adapted by Gary Ross,
based on a novel by Linda Hillenbrand AMERICAN SPLENDOR by Harvey Parker, Joyce Brabner, Shari Springer Berman   and Robert Pulcini CITY OF GOD by Braulio Mantovani ANIMATED FEATURE FILMS -  FINDING NEMO ( Disney,
Pixar Animation Studios)  Directed by Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich BROTHER BEAR ( Walt Disney Pictures)  Directed by Aaron Blaise and Robert Walker based on a screenplay by Steve Bencich and Ron J.  Friedman TRIPLETTES DE BELLEVILLE, LES or BELLEVILLE RENDEZ-
VOUS( Sony Pictures Classics)  Directed by Sylvain Chomet based on her own Screenplay 
