  Back in urlLink Future Studies , we learned about Wild Card Events--highly improbable, but incredibly effectual possible outcomes. Think World Trade Center collapsing, the stock market tanking, or getting struck by lightning. Most of our safety-oriented decisions in parenting are based on the possibility of wild card events. We're quite unlikely to get into a car accident, but because in the event of an accident, children are the worst off in the vehicle, we strap them in unbelievably expensive carseats every time we're in the car. These days parents are told to keep all kids in the back seat and all kids under seven in booster seats. Riding only on busses or trains would be absolutely safest, as the safety record of mass transportation is far better than that of single-occupant vehicles. But the state prefers individual transportation choice over communal safety. We accept some risks and guard against others.
The year I graduated from college the world was briefly taken with the fear that scientists at Los Alamos National Labs might urlLink carelessly destroy the universe with an experiment. The scientists had to admit it was a possibility, albeit an incredibly remote one. They assembled a panel of experts who all agreed the likelihood of such an event was so unlikely that the experiment could safely go on.
It did, and clearly, the universe did not rip apart. Why all this pensive consideration of probabilities vs. possiblities? We're nearly certain Ellie's come down with strep. A few ugly complications sometimes result from strep, the most famous of which is rheumatic fever, but the complications are extremely unlikely. Even more unlikely are the complications of the complications, but because said complications include heart valve damage, which results in a lifetime of heart disease, physicians typically promptly administer penicillin in response to a positive strep test.
I don't think antibiotics are evil, but I do think they should be reserved for use in only the most necessary conditions. Our bodies' health depend upon a symbiotic relationship with thousands of flora of bacteria and a single dose of antibiotics decimates the populations of these friendly little bugs. We should not take killing our little friends lightly. Pen-happy doctors and patients that only feel treated if they receive meds are evil. Probably 90% of antibiotic prescriptions are written in response to viruses, which are not affected by antibiotics at all. These indiscriminate killing sprees, along with the routine use of bleach in "antibacterial" soaps and washing agents are creating dangerous quantities of antibiotic-immune populations of bacteria. Have you noticed how antibacterial soaps always say they kill 99.9% of bacteria? That's because 0.1% of bacteria are naturally immune to antibacterial chemicals, thanks to random genetic pools. When you kill off all the natural competitors for the food supply, you create a perfect ecology for those .1 percenters. Humanity hasn't yet found a medicine that treats antibiotic-immune bacteria. Antibacterial chemicals and antibiotics, and especially the corporations that market based on the fears of well-intentioned parents, are the best friends of these dangerous organisms.
In case it isn't obvious, I'm really torn on this decision of whether to give Ellie an antibiotic shot for the strep. For my mom, it's a no-brainer: give it to her. But she shops at Wal-Mart in one breath and tells people not to in the other. I'm such a slave to my morals. But at the expense of my daughter's heart valves? 
