  The party of war and religious fanaticism is getting urlLink worried about their fearless leader, King George II. They shouldn't be. I have predicted for well over a year that Kerry will be the Democratic nominee and that he will lose to Bush in a close election. I am sticking by this prediction. The radical conservatives are becoming a little more realistic now and realize there is a danger they might lose a lot of what they worked 20+ years to gain in Washington. They are going to re-organize themselves.
This will cause them to win in November. Why? Because liberals have been and still are hopelessly disorganized. I have been following politics for the past 12 years and I am getting tired of so many pundits and pols saying how they have to be moderate and court the middle. Has the GOP become more moderate over the past 12 years? Absolutely not.
I know because I have been involved at a very low but very active level in radical conservative politics before realizing the errors of my ways. The Democratic party has pathetically tried to court the middle and they have failed across the board to win. Clinton helped to undermine the Democratic party. Politics is about intensity. Being blandly moderate doesn't pull people out to the polls. It does not energize your base which can serve up a whole accompanying chorus of writers, pundits, experts, activists and other leaders.
Liberals have failed to build the institutions necessary for consistent political victory. This time around is only marginally different because they have such an egregious opponent. But beneath the anti-Bush obsession of many liberals lies no coherent belief system that is capable of creating and maintaining an institutional identity. The Left is virtually non-existent in Washington, DC. The RadCons, on the other hand, have an elaborate network of fundraisers, think tanks, Congressman, activists, lobbyists, and most importantly, youth groups focused on growing the next generation of radical conservatives. The Left has the necessary components.
There is a left analog for every conservative institution or group. The problem is there is no thought given to creating an animating set of ideas . Robert Reich has made the most compelling case for reconstructing the Left in America. His new book urlLink Reason is an excellent introduction to the type of thinking liberals have to engage in now. Read it. Liberals identify with a variety of movements, but seldom understand the necessity of politically organizing these movements around a coherent set of ideas.
Dare I bring up the "M" word? Marxism. Yes, Marxism at one point provided a unifying worldview for many on the American Left. I would not call for a return to blindly ideological Marxism, but I would argue that any sensible person should recognize the significance of Marxist critiques without getting carried away with the fanaticism. However, in addition to the straitjacket of its ideological constraints Marxism carries the baggage of experience. It absolutely cannot serve as a unifying ideology.
In fact, it is best to avoid ideological commitments altogether and focus on building a coalition around progressive causes united by handful of vague but intelligible axioms. In large part this is how the conservative movement has succeeded. They not only promote ideas, but far more importantly they promote the interconnections between ideas. This creates strange bedfellows (investment bankers and Bible believers) but it WORKS. And it will continue to work unless the radical conservatives mess up so badly that they practically give the government to the Democratics party. In short, this is why I am still predicting a Bush win. 
