  Juan Williams, a columnist whom I respect, has come out with an urlLink article that is quite interesting.
This article basically says that Bush can win as much as 20% of the black vote. This is because Kerry, according to Williams, "has done a poor job of reaching out to black voters. " And also because "Mr. Kerry has rarely been identified with issues that compel black voters — notably affirmative action.
" First, I will say that Juan is right on several things. African-American voters do back school choice. On things such as the homosexuality/gay marriage, faith based initatives, religion, prayer in school, and other culturally conservative issues, blacks and conservative GOPers probably are in lock step. On the homosexuality/gay marriage issues, blacks seem even more urlLink anti gay lifestyle than whites do. Even with all this evidence and support, Juan is wrong to think Bush will get more than 13% (and even that's a stretch) in this election.
Beyond the fact that urlLink some 73% of blacks oppose the Iraq War and black unemployment is back into double digits under Bush, there are just some issues and perceptions that Republicans do not overcome because they pride themselves on them. Bush prides himself on winning nearly 30% of the black vote in his 1998 governor's race in Texas, but its rarely mentioned that he won only five urlLink 5%%%%% of the black vote in TEXAS in his race for President..not a ringing endorsement.
Bush nationally got anywhere between 8 and 10% of the black vote,depending on which exit polls you choose to believe. Though Juan says Bush should tout the blacks he has appointed to major positions, i'd say he should do the opposite. There is nothing more patronizing and irritating than to have Republicans and Bush bring out Condi Rice/Colin Powell/JC Watts whenever their racial intentions are questioned.
Colin Powell and Condi Rice are in their positions because they are the most qualified (which Republicans are urlLink adamant to point out), yet when time comes to defend Bush, they say "well look Bush has appointed black people to high positions. " They don't seem to realize the contradiction, but African-Americans sure do. By anwering the "What have you done for black people" question with "well I appointed some"..you imply that Condi Rice and Colin Powell are not there FOR their talents (which Republicans profess that they are), but for their race.
Bush and Republicans shouldn't point them out.its quite obvious that they are black. Another answer to a "What have you done for blacks" question is "well uh..I care about Africa..and I take urlLink pictures with black people..that's compassion. " Sadly, blacks in America care about as much about Africa as whites in America do. When Bush speaks before largely black audiences, for some reason, he focuses on Africa as if blacks somehow will go "ohh that's soo awesome..finally someone who cares about um..those poor people over there.
" The only black people who care about Africa (and this is in all honesty) are blacks in the elite classes and they are no more likely to vote for Bush than vote for a sock puppet. Hell Bush might as well stick to his original script and urlLink continue calling Africa a country for all black and white Americans care.
My caveat to this of course is that we should be extremely concerned about Africa infinitely more than we are today. I am happy and proud of President Bush for taking interest (and some urlLink argue FAR more interest than Clinton ) in Africa. With that said though, a sad and astonishing amount of Americans don't care much about the contient. Bush should care and shows he cares about Africa as a matter of national and global concern. My advice: Talk about Africa to the white groups; talk about the economy to the black groups.
This is one reason why Republicans lose among blacks in the perception game. Another reason is not necessarily the Republican views, but their actions. If elections among blacks were strictly decided by the views of each party, I'd imagine Republicans would come out winning more than a paltry 9% considering the role and power of the black church. Case in point: Affirmative action. There is much debate among blacks regarding affirmative action and its role.
Affirmative action for blacks (particularly) in college is more than an issue of policy, it is an issue of pride, an issue of honor, and an issue of respect. For College Republicans to say to the black students of their campus: "No offense, but you aren't qualified to be here with me"..how else are blacks suppose to respond but in anger and indignation. Republicans oppose preferences. I'm not too crazy about them myself, but they must be strong in opposing ALL preferences.
REpublicans say this is a matter of fairness, not a matter of race, yet it is not the blacks or the Democrats that make it a matter of race. If Republicans want to win on this issue and convince blacks, then they should come out an oppose equally all preferences (legacies, affirmative actions, sports, etc. ) urlLink Their focus on racial preferences makes it a racial issue and therefore African Americans feel insulted not only by their focus on race, but by their perceived hypocrisy in not focusing on preferences that may have helped them.
Bush himself maybe a sincere and honest man, but he leads a party where urlLink Trent Lott wishes Strom Thurmond had won the election of 1948 and urlLink Rush Limbaugh out of nowhere says Donovan McNabb is only liked because he's black. Yes, Bush urlLink repudiated, quite strongly Lott's remarks, but that something like that would even come out of a national officials mouth in the year 2002 is amazing. Yes, Democrats have had a long history of being the party of outright racists (George Wallace, and just about every Southern Democrat..hell Trent Lott and Strom Thurmond started out as Democrats), but could you imagine these words coming out of the mouth of Tom Daschle or any Democrat in this day and age?
(Yes yes, I know that Robert Byrd (D-WV) said urlLink white niggers/was a Klansman and Chris Dodd (D-CT) later urlLink praised Byrd. But in the perception battle, neither Dodd nor Byrd have or would get attention. That is unfair, but that is life. Republicans should know that in the perception battle, they must hold themselves to a higher standard (just as the perception battle, Clinton and Third Way Democrats had to be far more centrist).
The one big fat reason why Juan is wrong and why Bush will not get no more than 10-12% of the black vote is Florida Florida Florida as Tim Russert said. African-Americans have never forgiven Bush and Republicans for what they perceived to be a stolen election.. Not just a stolen election but an election stolen because of black disenfrancishment. Again, reality in this situation does not matter, elections and voting are about perceptions. No matter how many times I tell my mom that Bush didn't steal the election, her perception and the perception of urlLink many blacks is that he did. Bush lost any chance to improve his black vote totals for 2004, back in 2000. Its weird to imagine, but blacks were once the stalwarts of the Republican Party.
Even though history looks poorly on characters such as Warren G. Harding and Henry Cabot Lodge, they were among the first white political leaders to condemn lynching and the Klan while Woodrow Wilson, the great liberal hero, was busy urlLink segregating the federal government and praising the racist urlLink Birth of a Nation . Even during the Depression (1932) the majority of blacks voted for Herbert Hoover and the Party of Lincoln.
Even after FDR won over black voters, Republicans such as Wendell Wilkie (1940) and Thomas Dewey (1944,1948) garnered near 30% of the vote. urlLink Dwight Eisenhower won nearly 40% of the black vote in 1952, 1956 and Richard Nixon in 1960 won an amazing 32% of the black vote. For a little more history of the black vote go urlLink here . Since Goldwater got his 3% of the black vote in 1964 on his anti Civil Rights agenda, blacks have only voted Republican on average 10-12%. It seems only huge, watershed moments in history change the black vote in dramatic fashion. Bush probably had that moment with September 11th, but slowly let that slip away.
Unless Bush and Juan Williams know some secret that Juan hasn't already laid out in this article, then the Republicans should concentrate on winning the urlLink white vote.
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Perception and reality are two different things. This was an outline of why blacks won't vote for Bush. But should they? That's for a later blog. 
